Possible US election impacts on China
And how China views them
Much has been written about what will happen to the US-China relationship after the November election. Here is an overview after my recent trip to Washington DC.
A Harris Administration
A Harris Administration would be seen as more of a “blank slate” compared to Trump, with policies expected to emerge from a formal process rather than rhetoric.
She is expected to maintain a collaborative approach against China and not only continue, but possibility grow, tariffs and export controls.
A Trump Administration
Trump’s rhetoric may often be ahead of actual policy, but a new Administration is seen as more hawkish towards not just China, but trade, climate, and energy policies in general.
Expectations are for significant additional tariffs, pressure to negotiate on non-trade barriers (such as procurement practices that discriminate against US firms), and focus towards a more US-centric focus.
China’s thoughts
The biggest concern for China is whether there will be any substantive difference between Biden’s and Harris’s approaches, which may lead to strategic calculations.
It views either outcome as “bowls of poison,” and unlikely to change the direction of US-China relations.
One area of worry is a Harris Administration would carry forward Biden’s success on getting allies and partners to collaborate against China.
A different worry about a Trump Administration is it could bring more chaos and instability, along with raising tariffs to a point that it could affect Chinese trade around the world.
The difference in approach between Harris and Trump is described as a "scalpel vs. sledgehammer."
Congress
Concentrated on continuing to restrict and pressure China. The likely areas of focus:
Republicans:
Suggests full de-coupling from China
Potential to escalate U.S.-China strategic competition
Revocation of China’s Most Favored Nation Status
Getting supply chains away from Chinese influence
Democrats:
Recognizes China as the “most consequential strategic competitor”
Pledges to rally allies and international institutions
Reinforces “de-risking” over “decoupling”
Human Rights